78% of freshmen who met the criteria played 5+ years in the NBA
Freshman
MIN% ≥ 40
BPM ≥ 7.5
4+ Total Dunks
17.8%
All-Star
16 / 90
32.2%
Starter
29 / 90
27.8%
Backup
25 / 90
22.2%
Did Not Stick
20 / 90
Player Results
Kevin Love '08James Harden '08Derrick Rose '08Blake Griffin '08John Wall '10DeMarcus Cousins '10Anthony Davis '12Bradley Beal '12Joel Embiid '14Karl-Anthony Towns '15Devin Booker '15Ben Simmons '16Shai Gilgeous-Alexander '18Jaren Jackson Jr. '18Zion Williamson '19Tyrese Haliburton '19
OJ Mayo '08Gordon Hayward '09Tyreke Evans '09Greg Monroe '09Tristan Thompson '11Otto Porter '12Gary Harris '13Marcus Smart '13Justice Winslow '15Myles Turner '15Kelly Oubre '15D'Angelo Russell '15Jamal Murray '16Mikal Bridges '16Lonzo Ball '17Lauri Markkanen '17Miles Bridges '17Bruce Brown '17DeAndre Ayton '18Wendell Carter Jr. '18De'Andre Hunter '18Tyler Herro '19Onyeka Okongwu '20Evan Mobley '21Jalen Suggs '21Chet Holmgren '22Jabari Smith '22Brandon Miller '23Dereck Lively II '23
Michael Beasley '08Austin Daye '08John Jenkins '10Jared Sullinger '11Cody Zeller '12Ben McLemore '13Nerlens Noel '13Jahlil Okafor '15Stanley Johnson '15Markelle Fultz '17Malik Monk '17Josh Jackson '17Landry Shamet '17Jonathan Isaac '17Robert Williams '17Zach Collins '17Mo Bamba '18Marvin Bagley III '18Jaxson Hayes '19Obi Toppin '19Brice Sensabaugh '23Jarace Walker '23
Robbie Hummel '08LaceDarius Dunn '08Xavier Henry '10Javon McCrea '11BJ Young '12Seth Tuttle '12Tony Mitchell '12Branden Dawson '12Anthony Bennett '13Sam Dekker '13Gary Clark '15Mike Daum '16Justin Patton '17TJ Leaf '17Zhaire Smith '18Jarrett Culver '18Nick Muszynski '19Ignas Brazdeikis '19Vernon Carey Jr. '20
7Lacked any perimeter shooting
6Struggled with significant or continuous injuries
6Played in over 143 NBA games across four-plus seasons
1Lacked significant NBA-level athleticism
1Significant off-court issues
1Widely considered one of the biggest draft misses of all time
*Some players suffered from multiple of these factors
Player Outcomes
Utilizing Draft Express Pick Expectations, players were grouped into four categories:
Did Not Stick — Fewer than five NBA seasons. Backup — Five NBA seasons, with career 10–24 minutes per game, or over 4,000 career NBA minutes. Starter — Career 24 minutes per game or higher, or started over half of career NBA games (minimum 21 MPG). All-Star — Two or more appearances in the NBA All-Star Game.
The results of the Productive Young Athlete query have historically been an intriguing, volatile mashup: a similar probability as a top-15 pick to become an All-Star or Starter, but also a similar probability as a 16–30 pick to not stick in the NBA at all.
For context, 53% of players drafted between picks 1–15 from 2008–2021 became All-Stars or Starters. Additionally, across the same time period, 29% of players drafted between picks 16–30 did not stick in the NBA.
DraftExpress Pick Expectations from the 2008–2021 NBA Drafts
50% of players (45/90) who met the Productive Young Athlete Query became NBA Starters or multi-time All-Stars — comparable to historic lottery picks 6–10, while carrying the floor risk of picks 16–20.
Projecting Into the Future
Players who met the Productive Young Athlete Query in 2024, 2025, and 2026:
Reed SheppardCollin Murray-BoylesJT Toppin
Cooper FlaggJase RichardsonVJ EdgecombeKhaman MaluachAsa NewellDylan HarperDerik QueenCarter Bryant
72% of sophomores who met the criteria played 5+ years in the NBA
Sophomore
MIN% ≥ 40
BPM ≥ 9
4+ Total Dunks
6.9%
All-Star
4 / 58
37.9%
Starter
22 / 58
27.6%
Backup
16 / 58
27.6%
Did Not Stick
16 / 58
45% of players (26/58) who met the Productive Sophomore Query became NBA Starters or multi-time All-Stars — comparable to historic lottery picks 6–10, while carrying the floor risk of picks 16–25.
Draft Express Pick Expectations: Player Outcomes from 2010–2021
Draft Express Pick Expectations: Player Outcomes from 2010–2021
Player Results
Draymond Green '10Donovan Mitchell '17Ja Morant '19Tyrese Haliburton '20
Jordan Crawford '10Derrick Williams '11Jared Sullinger '12Terrence Jones '12Trey Burke '13Cody Zeller '13Kyle Anderson '14Robert Williams '18Xavier Tillman '19Chuma Okeke '19Bruno Fernando '19Obi Toppin '20Jalen Smith '20Tari Eason '22Ryan Kalkbrenner '22Kyle Filipowski '24
63% of players who met the criteria played 5+ years in the NBA
Junior
MIN% ≥ 40
BPM ≥ 10
4+ Total Dunks
2.6%
All-Star
1 / 38
15.8%
Starter
6 / 38
44.7%
Backup
17 / 38
36.8%
Did Not Stick
14 / 38
Around 18% of players (7/38) who met the Productive Junior Query became NBA Starters or multi-time All-Stars. Overall, players who met the Productive Junior Query had comparable outcomes to Picks 26–30 from the 2010–2021 NBA Drafts, where 22% of players became multi-time All-Stars or Starters, 40% became Backups, and 38% of players did not stick in the NBA.
Draft Express Pick Expectations: Player Outcomes from 2010–2021
68% of players who met the below criteria played 5+ years in the NBA
Freshman
At Least 6'6"
MIN% ≥ 40
FT% ≥ 75%
FTAs ≥ 50
BPM ≥ 3
4+ Total Dunks
9%
All-Star
7 / 77
25%
Starter
19 / 77
34%
Backup
26 / 77
32%
Did Not Stick
25 / 77
· 34% (26/77) of players who met the Efficient Tall Freshman query became NBA Starters or multi-time All-Stars.
· Looking at the 2010–2021 NBA Draft classes, players who meet the ETF Query have comparable All-Star/Starter rates as Picks 11–20, where 28% of players became Starters and 8% became multi-time All-Stars.
· Simultaneously, players who meet the ETF Query have a comparable rate to "not stick" as players drafted between Picks 21–30. Players who hit the ETF Query did not stick at a 32% rate while players drafted between Picks 21–30 did not stick 36% of the time.
Draft Express Pick Expectations: Player Outcomes from 2010–2021
Draft Express Pick Expectations: Player Outcomes from 2010–2021
Player Results
While players were grouped based on current career statistics, there were seven players in particular who were too early to group: Tucker DeVries ('22), Mark Mitchell ('23), Andrew Rohde ('23), Julian Phillips ('23), Jett Howard ('23), Johnny Furphy ('24), and Kwame Evans Jr. ('24). To be on the cautionary side, only two of these seven players were included in the "Backup" threshold while five of these seven players were included in the "Did Not Stick" category.
It should be noted that Tucker DeVries is in the 2026 NBA Draft, while Andrew Rohde and Kwame Evans Jr. are both still in college.
Karl-Anthony Towns '15Pascal Siakam '15Devin Booker '15Jayson Tatum '17Shai Gilgeous-Alexander '18Jaren Jackson Jr. '18Cade Cunningham '21
Tobias Harris '11Harrison Barnes '11Allen Crabbe '11Andrew Wiggins '14Myles Turner '15Mikal Bridges '16Lauri Markkanen '17Gary Trent Jr. '18De'Andre Hunter '18Julian Champagnie '20Jaime Jaquez Jr. '20Patrick Williams '20Franz Wagner '20Isaiah Stewart '20Keegan Murray '21Bennedict Mathurin '21Jabari Smith '22Brandon Miller '23Stephon Castle '24
Alec Burks '10Cody Zeller '12Nik Stauskas '13Justin Anderson '13Amir Coffey '17Jonathan Isaac '17Oshae Brissett '18Kevin Knox '18Naji Marshall '18Jalen McDaniels '18Cam Reddish '19Nassir Little '19Charles Bassey '19Justin Champagnie '20Terrence Shannon Jr. '20Jeremiah Robinson-Earl '20Josh Green '20Zeke Nnaji '20Moses Moody '21AJ Griffin '22Brice Sensabaugh '23Taylor Hendricks '23Gradey Dick '23Kyle Filipowski '23Jett Howard†† '23Johnny Furphy†† '24
†† Too early to group; included to increase future accuracy of the study
Xavier Henry '10Trent Wideman '11Quincy Miller '12Aaron Harrison '14William Lee '15Mike Daum '16Allonzo Trier '16Diamond Stone '16Tyler Lydon '16Jacob Evans III '16Kristian Doolittle '17Daniel Purifoy '17Matt Mitchell '18Kevin Obanor '19Joe Wieskamp '19Ignas Brazdeikis '19Nick Muszynski '19Zach Freemantle '20Marcus Domask '20Efe Abogidi '21Tucker DeVries† '22Julian Phillips† '23Andrew Rohde† '23Mark Mitchell† '23Kwame Evans Jr.† '24
† Too early to group; included in the study to increase future accuracy
Projecting Into the Future
Players who met the Efficient Tall Freshman Query in 2025 and 2026:
Cooper FlaggKhaman MaluachDylan HarperDerik QueenTre JohnsonIsaac CeliscarKarter KnoxJacob Cofie
Cameron BoozerAllen GravesAJ DybantsaHannes SteinbachNate AmentBraden FragerMatt Able
A study on drafted players listed under 6'2" from 2003–2022
62.5%
Stick Rate 2003–2012
20 / 32 drafted under 6'2"
44.4%
Stick Rate 2013–2022
16 / 36 drafted under 6'2"
It is becoming increasingly difficult to stick as an undersized guard (shorter than 6'2") in the NBA. From the 2003–2012 NBA draft classes, 62.5% (20/32) of drafted players listed under 6'2" stuck in the NBA. However, in the 2013–2022 draft classes, only 44.4% (16/36) stuck or are currently considered likely to stick.
Don't count out 6'1" guards for the immediate future. While 50% (7/14) stuck from the 2003–2012 draft classes, an impressive 70.6% (12/17) stuck or are on track to stick from the 2013–2022 draft classes.
Combined with the overall trend, however, there is a clear risk in drafting a player listed at 6'0" or shorter. Only four guards listed at 6'0" or below have stuck in the NBA since 2013, with an overall stick rate of just 21.5% (4/19).
The ultimate goal for NBA teams is to win championships. While the probability of undersized guards sticking has decreased, perhaps more important is their lack of playing time once the postseason begins and limitations get targeted.
Out of 15 undersized guards who stuck in the NBA and appeared in the playoffs since the 2013 draft class, these players see a median 11.8% decrease in Playoff MPG compared to their Regular Season MPG.
Excluding the two All-Stars in the study — Darius Garland and Trae Young — this number jumps to a median 17.3% decrease in Playoff MPG.
*All data from Real GM, Rookie Scale, and Sports Reference
Era
Height
Drafted
Stuck
Stick Rate
2003–2012
Under 6'2"
32
20
62.5%
2013–2022
Under 6'2"
36
16
44.4%
2003–2012
6'1" exactly
14
7
50.0%
2013–2022
6'1" exactly
17
12
70.6%
2013–2022
6'0" or under
19
4
21.5%
Projecting for the Draft
Relevant prospects who measured in at 6'0" or shorter:
Braden SmithBruce ThorntonJa'Kobi Gillespie
Relevant prospects who measured in at 6'1":
Christian AndersonEbuka OkorieKylan BoswellNick Boyd
